我们于10月28日与均胜电子管理层进行交流更新。北美核心人形机器人客户产量稳步爬坡，周产能预计由10月底800台升至11月初1,000台、11月底超2,000台、12月2,500-3,000台；2026年出货指引1.6万-2万套，单套ASP近3,000美元。以智元、宇树为代表的国内机器人客户2026年合计收入有望超1亿元。4Q26全球汽车市场同比降幅预计收窄，汽车电子持续受益于智能化。三季度利润率承压源于收入收缩及存储芯片、PCB等原材料涨价，管理层拟通过价格传导、提升产能利用率和燃气发生器自制率至50%以上降本。我们下调2026-28年收入13%、毛利率至17.1%/17.4%/17.7%、净利润24-29%至14.27/17.06/20.15亿元，将A/H目标价下调至30.8元/20.7港元，维持买入。
We hosted a management update with Joyson on 28 October. Weekly output for the key North American humanoid robot client is expected to ramp from 800 units in late October to 1,000 in early November, above 2,000 by end-November and 2,500-3,000 in December; FY26 shipment guidance is 16,000-20,000 sets at an ASP of nearly USD3,000 per set. Combined revenue from domestic robot clients, led by Agibot and Unitree, should exceed Rmb100mn in 2026. Management expects the YoY decline in the global auto market to narrow in 4Q26, while auto electronics continues to benefit from vehicle intelligence. 3Q margin pressure reflected revenue shrinkage and higher memory/chip and PCB costs; cost actions include price pass-through, better capacity utilization and raising gas-generator self-manufacturing to over 50%. We cut 2026-28E revenue by 13%, GPM to 17.1%/17.4%/17.7% and net profit by 24-29% to Rmb1,427/1,706/2,015mn, and lower our A/H target prices to Rmb30.8/HKD20.7. Maintain Buy.