HSBC (0005.HK/HSBA.L) 3Q26 Preview: A steady quarter expected focus will be on NII outlook and buybacks

HSBC will report 3Q26 results on 27th October. We expect the bank to deliver underlying PBT of US$10.4bn, +14% yoy /+1% qoq (2% ahead of Visible Alpha Consensus). We see Banking NII growth to remain supported by continued balance sheet expansion and a higher rate environment, while credit costs should remain broadly stable. Offsetting this, we expect some moderation in non-banking NII following stronger 2Q performance especially in CIB, where IB/DCM/ECM revenues were exceptionally robust last quarter. We model US$0.5bn of share buybacks this quarter down from the US$1.0bn announced in 2Q26, reflecting loan growth and the potential for negative OCI impact on capital given steeper yield curves. Beyond the quarter, investor focus is likely to remain on whether the higher rate environment could support an upward revision to NII guidance as well as on wealth management trends. We also make changes to our underlying EPS estimates of -0.7% to 0.6% for FY26-29E, reflecting a more supportive in