我们预计美国三季度实际GDP环比折年增长3.1%，主要由个人消费（3.7%）拉动；企业投资增长10.2%，但净出口拖累2.9个百分点，库存贡献1.7个百分点。耐用品是近期消费加速的主因，截至8月实际耐用品支出年化增长4.3%，高于非耐用品（2.0%）和服务（2.5%），汽车与家具各增约7%，原因包括2025年低基数带来的追赶效应、高收入群体的财富效应、退税增加约20%以及居民动用储蓄、储蓄率降至2022年以来最低。展望后市，实际收入疲软、金融条件收紧、财政刺激不再以及OBBBA削减SNAP和Medicaid将压制中低收入消费，预计四季度与明年一季度消费增速回落至1.5%-2.0%，GDP降至2.0%-2.5%；若如此，美联储可在下周按兵不动，并于12月和明年3月各加息25bp至4.25%-4.5%。
We forecast 3Q real GDP at 3.1% (q/q saar), led by personal consumption growth of 3.7%; business investment grows 10.2% but net trade is a 2.9pp drag while inventories add 1.7pp. Durable goods led the recent acceleration in spending, rising 4.3% annualized through August versus 2.0% for nondurables and 2.5% for services, with motor vehicles and furniture each up about 7%, supported by a soft 2025 base, the wealth effect among upper-income households, a 20% increase in tax refunds and a lower saving rate. We expect affordability and fiscal pressures to weigh on low- and middle-income spending, moderating consumption growth to 1.5-2.0% in 4Q and 1Q with GDP at 2.0-2.5%, which would let the Fed hold next week and deliver two more 25bp hikes in December and March to 4.25%-4.5%. The report also tracks oil (SPR at its lowest since April 1984), financial conditions (22bp tighter since the September FOMC) and tariffs (effective rate converging near 10% by year-end).