过去三个月全球央行多数维持或上调政策利率：发达经济体按GDP加权平均83%加息、无一家降息，新兴市场经济体12%降息、8%加息。高盛全球金融条件指数（GS FCI）三个月内收紧20bp，发达市场收紧20bp、新兴市场收紧24bp；国别层面韩国（+168bp）、土耳其（+53bp）、澳大利亚（+39bp）收紧最多，巴西（-73bp）、俄罗斯（-63bp）、瑞士（-50bp）放松最多。过去30天高盛多项政策利率预测调整：美国2026年底与2027年底预测各上调50bp至4.125%和3.625%，终端利率上调25bp至3.375%；英国2026年底上调25bp至4.0%、2027年底上调75bp至3.75%；欧元区2026年底再加息25bp至2.75%，终端利率上调25bp至2.25%；澳大利亚、日本预测亦上调，匈牙利、南非上调而以色列、哈萨克斯坦、印尼、巴西下调。
Recent policy changes: Global central banks have mostly either held or hiked policy rates over the last three months, with DMs hiking on average and EMs mostly on hold. In DMs, no central banks lowered and 83% raised rates over the last three months (GDP-weighted average), while, in EMs, 12% cut rates and 8% raised rates over the same period. Our Global Financial Conditions Index (GS FCI) has tightened by 20bp over the last three months, reflecting tightening in both DMs (+20bp) and EMs (+24bp). At the country level, financial conditions have tightened the most in South Korea (+168bp), Turkiye (+53bp), and Australia (+39bp) and eased the most in Brazil (-73bp), Russia (-63bp), and Switzerland (-50bp). Forecast updates: We have made several policy rate forecast revisions over the last 30 days. In the US, we raised our end-2026 and end-2027 forecasts by 50bp each, to 4.125% and 3.625% respectively. We also raised our terminal forecast for the US by 25bp to 3.375%. In the UK, we raised ou