本周FOMC加息25个基点。基准情形下，通胀降温将令美联储在未来数月按兵不动，并于明年开启降息。但由于主席Warsh表示需要撤出的"宽松剂量"可能不止一次，并明确将能源价格上涨与加息挂钩，近期（最早10月）进一步加息的风险上升——点阵图中仅两个点显示今年不再加息，12位委员认为应再加25个基点、4位认为应加50个基点。更高的政策利率预期已推升长端美债收益率与企业与居民借贷成本。我们认为这不会明显减缓美国增长最具韧性的引擎——AI相关投资（除非股市出现抛售或信用利差走阔），但会令住宅行业进一步陷入收缩、拖慢非AI制造业，并进一步压低本已低迷的招聘需求。经济增长将日益依赖单一驱动因素，因而愈发脆弱。通胀方面，5月至8月核心CPI三个月折年率由3.1%降至2.0%，核心PCE同期由4.0%降至3.1%，但Warsh要求"明确且以足够速度"向目标回归的更高标准。
The FOMC delivered a 25bp rate hike this week. In our base case, cooler inflation keeps the Fed on hold in coming months and then leads to cuts next year. But risks of further near-term hikes (as early as October) have increased as Chair Warsh suggested that there may be more than just a "dose of accommodation" to remove and explicitly linked higher energy prices to rate increases. With only two "dots" indicating no further hikes this year (12 think the Fed should hike another 25bp and 4 think 50bp is appropriate) we believe the market is correct in assigning significant probability to hikes in October and December. Expectations for higher policy rates have led to a meaningful rise in longer term Treasury yields, driving up borrowing costs for firms and individuals. This is not likely to significantly slow the flow of capital to the most resilient driver of US growth: AI-related investment. That would take a sell-off in equities or expanding credit spreads. But higher mortgage and auto