本报告为美银证券美国经济周报（2026年9月18日）。美联储在9月会议如期加息25个基点，并释放强烈鹰派信号，声明中删除了将通胀与供给冲击挂钩的措辞，经济预测摘要（SEP）显示增长更强、通胀更高、失业率更低。报告认为加息并非政策错误，而是沃什主席借此树立政策独立性与历史声誉的机会，维持10月和12月再加息两次、随后长期按兵不动的非共识判断。名义经济增长强劲：8月零售销售大幅超预期，除汽车和核心控制组均环比增长1.4%，餐饮服务增长1.2%，带动三季度PCE跟踪由2.6%上调至3.4%，三季度GDP跟踪由2.5%上调至3.0%（q/q saar）。名义支出同比增长6.3%，历史上当名义支出增速高于5%时核心PCE往往超调2%。
Hikes are not a policy mistake. But will 75bp be enough? Fed hikes looked politically challenging a few months ago, but they increasingly seem like an opportunity for Chair Warsh to burnish his legacy. We stick to our call for two more, in Oct and Dec. The robustness of the nominal economy both increases the risks of inflation persistence and reduces the risks that hikes will cause a recession. However, if supply shocks prove persistent, the Fed might eventually have to choose between an extended inflation overshoot and a hard landing. Aug retail sales surprised strongly to the upside, with ex-autos and control group sales both up 1.4% m/m, leading us to raise our 3Q PCE tracking estimate from 2.6% to 3.4% q/q saar. 3Q GDP tracking is up from 2.5% to 3.0% q/q saar. Nominal spending is up 6.3% y/y, and history suggests core PCE tends to overshoot 2% when nominal spending is running above 5%. Underlying inflation has been stuck around 2.5% for several quarters. The risk is that 75bp of h