本报告为摩根士丹利欧洲金属与矿业追踪报告，聚焦柴油成本飙升对矿企利润率的延迟冲击。自美伊冲突以来柴油价格几乎翻倍，俄罗斯/海湾出口下降、炼厂约束与库存消耗放大了原油价格冲击；美国或限制柴油出口，将进一步收紧本已偏紧的全球柴油市场并推高到岸价格。对采矿利润率的影响存在时滞：第一量子指出约2-3个月滞后，Endeavour Mining受管制燃油价格定期重定价，Fortescue警告铁矿石库存中的高成本将推升FY27销售成本，Agnico Eagle将柴油列为2027年相对2026年最大的潜在成本压力。预计未来2-3个季度随燃料采购、承包商费率与物流费用重置而全面传导。披露的成本结构显示燃料与电力占直接运营成本的15%-20%，其中燃料单独占6%-10%；柴油广泛用于运输、钻探、铁路、离网发电与爆破，大型露天矿（尤其大宗商品）敞口最大。
This is Morgan Stanley's European Metals & Mining Tracker, examining the delayed spillover of surging diesel costs into mining margins. Diesel prices are nearly double pre-conflict levels, as lower Russian/Gulf exports, refining constraints and inventory draws amplify the crude-price shock. Supply risks could tighten further with the US considering restrictions on U.S. diesel exports, removing supply from an already-tight global diesel market and adding upside risk to delivered prices elsewhere. The impact on mining margins is staggered: First Quantum cites a 2-3-month lag, Endeavour Mining's regulated fuel prices reset periodically, Fortescue warns that higher costs embedded in iron-ore stockpiles will lift FY27 cost of sales, and Agnico Eagle identifies diesel as its biggest prospective cost pressure in 2027 vs 2026. Broader pass-through is expected over the next 2-3 quarters as fuel purchases, contractor rates and logistics charges reset. Disclosed cost mixes put fuel and power at 1