Global Luxury Goods: Consumer Polarisation - Wealth Takes the Lead

This note puts the consumer polarisation thesis in global luxury goods to the test using US data on income and expenditure (BLS), household wealth (FED) and sentiment (UMich). Wealth and income inequality rose from 1990 to 2019, yet real incomes grew across all cohorts, with higher-income households accumulating income and especially wealth faster; real discretionary spending stayed broadly flat for the lowest quintile. Inequality paused between 2019 and 2024, when real income growth favoured the lower four quintiles, but wealth polarisation resumed in 2023 and accelerated in 2024-26, with the top 1% wealth share rising 0.7-0.8ppts per year, roughly 3x the 1994-2019 pace. Affluent households' greater financial-asset exposure supports their more constructive economic outlook and spending capacity. This matches K-shaped growth in global luxury, with resilience at the high end, particularly Jewellery Maisons, and pressure on aspirational consumers. Coverage includes LVMH, Hermes, Richemon