US Resi HVAC tracker (September): Shipments optically good but off weak comps; no real sign of inflection without lower rates

The US residential HVAC market had a rough year in 2025, dealing with channel and demand issues. 2026 has not been the year of recovery investors hoped for. We continue to believe that the market remains structurally impaired due to high mortgage rates and inflation-driven weakness in consumer sentiment. While we think the worst drawdown is behind, we also do not see light at the end of the tunnel, and expect US resi to continue bouncing along the bottom until these issues are resolved. AHRI sell-in data was up ~20% in July 2026, but largely due to easier comps from 2025; numbers are still down over a two-year period versus 2024 and remain down on a YTD and TTM basis. HARDI sell-out data was up ~2.7% over the last 12 months, which after stripping out price increases points to a relatively flat market. Most housing demand metrics are weaker vs. the five-year average;