瑞银对德国汽车产业链进行旗舰调研，走访宝马、奔驰、保时捷、大众、奥迪、比亚迪、大陆、法雷奥、英飞凌、舍弗勒及Sixt等整车厂、供应商与行业专家。整车厂交易反馈总体为符合预期至偏弱：中国市场持续疲软且份额流失是最大担忧，欧洲量产品牌竞争压力上升、纯电结构被稀释，对美国消费者韧性的表态亦趋于谨慎；稳健度排序为保时捷、宝马、奔驰、大众与奥迪，大众已发布盈利预警，奔驰全年指引高度依赖四季度改善（三季度汽车利润率可能低于3%）。供应商反馈基本符合预期，轮胎行业价格与结构仍是关键利润驱动，法雷奥与舍弗勒重申近期展望，并强调数据中心冷却、人形机器人等非汽车增长机会。投资建议：保时捷为整车首选，大陆与Sixt同为买入标的；整体更看好供应商与轮胎子板块，对整车厂保持谨慎。
We met with BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Volkswagen, BYD, Continental, Valeo, Infineon, Schaeffler, Audi and Sixt. The agenda included C-level meetings, product insights, test drives and segment deep dives. In the CFO meetings with the OEMs, trading commentary was in-line to weaker. China remains a growing concern (ongoing market weakness and share losses); Europe performs well but with growing competitive pressure in the mass segment & BEV mix dilution; the tone on the US has also become incrementally more cautious. Ranking from in-line to more cautious: P911, BMW, MBG, VW & Audi. Next to VW, who profit-warned last Friday, we think MBG's FY guidance also heavily depends on a better Q4 vs. a likely soft Q3. BMW should reconfirm the FY guide at the upcoming CMD but Q3 underlying auto margin will likely be around 2%. The meeting with BYD highlighted substantial risk to legacy mass OEMs, but there were also reassuring elements for premium OEMs as BYD with its Denza brand won't be able to