Medical device distributor expert call takeaways: 3Q26 saw positive development; momentum likely to continue in 4Q26 and FY27

We hosted three expert sessions over the past two weeks to gauge the state of medical device procurement in China, covering a nationwide leading distributor across all categories, a provisional ultrasound and CT distributor in south China, and a national distributor focused on IVD. The key takeaway is that the darkest time for the industry is behind us. Class II and Class III hospitals in high-tier cities drove a c.10% y-y rebound in 3Q26 procurement, while low-tier demand stayed sluggish; Mindray and United Imaging outgrew the industry on high-end new launches, and distributor inventory levels have declined. The anti-corruption campaign has become a new normal, and local government reshuffling deferred some 3Q26 purchases into 4Q26. VBP rollout has been slow, at only 15% of one expert's business YTD, but should accelerate in 4Q26; VBP products typically see 50-60% price cuts, pushing provisional distributors out and consolidating volumes into national platforms charging 8-10% margins.