U.S. Electrical Equipment: State of Utility Capex 2Q26 - Capex intention update and sharpened messaging on rate-payer affordability

In this note, we update our State of Utility Capex series, a comprehensive monitor of short and long-term US electric utility capex trends providing insight into the fundamentals of electrical equipment manufacturers and contractors. Utility capex grew 22% Y/Y in 2Q, 9ppts below seasonal, down 2% Q/Q. Consensus expects 3Q to grow above seasonal, implying 35% Y/Y growth; 4Q is currently below seasonal, implying upside to street's current full-year 23% Y/Y growth expectation. '26 capex growth expectations have come down a bit since 1Q (from 25% to 23%), while '27 capex expectations are 4ppts higher vs. the start of this year, at 11% Y/Y growth. Multi-year budgets are up 22% Y/Y in 2Q;