European Capital Goods: Wind Expo takeaways: Growth for Cables, Volatility for Wind

We met 11 companies across the supply chain; key takes: an air pocket in offshore activity ahead, very high onshore margins in Germany/US might gradually normalise, China gaining ground outside the EU, and German incentives being reduced. Prefer Cables (OW NEX, PRY) over wind OEMs (EW NDX over UW VWS). Offshore: a sizeable dip is ahead, with further recovery from 2030 dependent on continuing policy support in UK and Germany; the most cautious estimates point to peak (2026) to trough (2028) global offshore installations ex-China falling up to 50%, and floating wind remains a distant, largely uneconomical technology. Onshore profitability is elevated in the US and Germany, and we think both could gradually normalise — Germany from lower 2026 auction prices and changing incentives from 2027, the US from a material headwind when 45X credits expire in early 2028. Chinese competitors are gaining ground in emerging markets and looking at JVs/partnerships to penetrate Europe, though Chinese tu