2026年8月中国社会消费品零售总额同比增长0.4%（较2019年CAGR为2.3%），低于市场预期的0.8%及7月的0.6%，增速放缓主要受不利天气影响。分项看，商品零售增速放缓至0.3%，餐饮收入由1.4%降至1.1%；线上零售增速升至3.3%，但线上商品销售放缓至2.2%，部分反映夏季消费向服务转移。必选消费表现分化：食品饮料烟酒加速至5.6%，其中烟酒受低基数推动由6.0%升至12.5%，粮油食品放缓至4.0%，化妆品由6.8%降至4.9%，个护用品持平于1.8%。可选消费多数改善，体育娱乐用品降幅收窄至4.8%，服装同比降0.5%，金银珠宝受产品需求疲弱拖累降幅扩大至17.5%。整体动能较7月略有放缓，预计9月随中秋与国庆假期临近将有所回升。报告认为消费复苏路径渐进且波折，最新消费者调查显示三季度情绪仍偏弱；
China retail sales rose 0.4% YoY in Aug (2.3% CAGR vs. 2019), below +0.8% consensus and +0.6% in Jul-26. Growth decelerated due to impact from unfavorable weather. We expect trend to recover in Sep with back-to-back Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. Retail sales growth of goods slowed down to +0.3% yoy in Aug vs. +0.5% in July, with restaurants sales decelerating to 1.1% from 1.4% in July. Online retail sales growth was up to 3.3% yoy (2.4% in July), while online commercial goods sales growth moderated to 2.2% yoy vs. 3.3% in July, which may partly reflect a shift in consumer spending toward services during the summer season. Among all categories, Alcohol & Tobacco improved the most, with growth accelerating from +6.0% yoy in July to +12.5% yoy in Aug given the low base. Gold & Jewelry remained notably weak, with its decline widening to 17.5% from 10.1% in July. Staples categories showed mixed trends in August: F&B growth accelerated to 5.6% vs. 5.2% in July, driven by Sof