Global Memory Tech — Weekly theme: Samsung's 3Q results, global forecast updates, de-spec impact

Samsung Electronics reported preliminary 3Q OP of W107tn, broadly in line with our estimate and consensus, confirming the memory super-cycle: DRAM and NAND contributed >100% of total OP, offsetting large losses in smartphones and foundry; memory ASP still rose 20%+ QoQ, with OPM high (DRAM: 75%; NAND: 65%). We expect OP to increase further in 4Q and in 2027 vs 2026, and shareholder returns may exceed W150tn pa. Reflecting stronger-than-expected NAND ASP (Micron's Aug-end NAND ASP rose ~30% QoQ), we raise our NAND ASP assumptions by 4% for 2H26 and 2027-28, and lift our 3Q global QoQ ASP forecast to +20% from +15%; the global memory market should reach US$2.1tn in 2030. On 8-hi HBM4 de-spec, we do not view it as a demand cut but as another growth catalyst supporting higher GPU volumes plus additional SOCAMM and eSSD orders; no meaningful wafer input for 8-hi HBM4 has been observed.